It’s crunch time at Minnesota United, folks. With only six games remaining in the regular season, this week is essentially the Loons’ last chance to stack up enough results to make the final month of the season a push for playoffs rather than a playing-for-pride scenario. Walking away from the next two games with four or six points would be a substantial shake-up for the bottom half of the Western Conference table, one that could point to a last-minute postseason berth for a motivated Black and Blue side. Every point counts, so without further ado, let’s break this down.

Run of Form

Minnesota United FC (7-12-9)
Run of Form: D-L-L-L-L

Your Loons have had a rough go of it in the back half of the season, with their last draw against Houston bringing them to a total of seven winless matches in a row. It’s not a position any team wants to be in as the postseason draws ever nearer, but the Black and Blue aren’t mathematically down for the count yet. The boys showed some real signs of life against the Dynamo and are separated from the play-in line by just six points. Right now, they need to take it one game at a time. A single win would feel big right now, and might be enough to open the floodgates.

Colorado Rapids (11-13-4)
Run of Form: D-L-D-L-W (All Competitions)

Colorado isn’t having their finest moment, either. Including their elimination from the U.S. Open Cup by a red-hot St. Louis CITY, they’re now winless in their last four. The Rapids are currently in the postseason picture, but only four points separates their eighth-place play-in spot from 10th-place Portland. Their grip on the playoffs is tenuous, and a loss this Wednesday would be costly.

Keys to the Match:

No Navarro

You can’t talk about Colorado without talking about Rafael Navarro. Colorado’s former star striker departed the Rapids during the transfer window — we’ll see more of him this weekend, as he now plays for St. Louis CITY. Despite his midseason departure, he still leads the Rapids’ scoring at 10 goals on the season, and the loss of his presence up front has been huge. (Don’t be confused by the other Navarro on their roster. Miguel Navarro is a defender, and while he’s good at his job, he’s not in any way compensating for his counterpart’s firepower.) 

The Rapids do have options up top. Morgan Whittaker notched a brace in his second start with the club, and Donavan Phillip has scored a goal in each of his last three matches. And the most promising contributor on the Rapids’ roster is clearly Paxten Aaronson, who has seven goals and nine assists on the season — but he’s a playmaking midfielder, not a striker, and the Rapids have only won a single game since Navarro’s transfer. That’s a hard fact to ignore, and the front line will need to step it up to get into a more comfortable playoff position.

Full-Time Form

Any Loons fan is probably deeply frustrated as of late by a pattern of surrendering late goals. And those late goals are a problem, sure, but the underlying numbers actually point to a larger issue: We’re constantly falling behind early. This handy goal breakdown from SoccerStats breaks goals conceded into ten-minute increments. If we split the match into thirds, the Loons have actually scored their most goals in the final half hour (19), and the real problem area is the first 30 minutes. In that first third, they’ve conceded their most goals (22) and scored only eight times. 

Colorado has the opposite problem, having conceded their most goals (20) in the final third of the match. They’ve given up a lead in their last three matches, all coming after the 57’ mark. (Yes, I know 57 is not the last third, but three minutes? Close enough.) Will this Wednesday play to the same formula, seeing the Loons concede early and the Rapids concede late, or can the Loons flip the script and grab the early momentum for a change? 

The Cherrion Top

The Loons’ latest transfer window move made his first start for the Loons on Saturday, and what a start it was. Defender Cherrion Valerius took to his post on the back line with flying colors, and his contributions ranged from some solid 1v1 duels to a massive assist that put the Black and Blue in the lead in the 78th minute. I mean, check out this gorgeous combination run on the right side for Caldeira’s big goal:

That’s what we like to see. Valerius comes to Minnesota on loan from Dutch side NAC Breda (with an option for permanent transfer), where he’s made over 50 appearances with the first team and earned a cap for Curaçao in 2024. At only 21, he has quite the high ceiling, and making such a major impact in his debut is a massively promising sign for the Loons. He’s quite the presence on the back line at 6’4”, and he fits right in with our forward-pressing defense. Valerius’ style of play could be exactly the spark the Loons’defense needs to lock down the final third in the coming weeks — and years.