The field is 87.5% set, and apparently, that’s good enough for FIFA to do the World Cup draw. Yes, folks, the groups for the 2026 FIFA World Cup have been selected, and everyone is happy. No, really, no complaints whatsoever. That said, I do have some thoughts on how things shook out, and I need to share them with you all right now or I’ll descend into another batch of unfounded conspiracy theories before too long.
The tournament itself is still far enough away that making predictions of any kind would be a fool’s errand. I know I’ve told you about my psychic abilities in the past, but I’ve found that they only applied to 32-team tournaments. Now that we’re up to 48, I’m still fine-tuning the predicto-meter. My apologies for any inconvenience; we’ll have it back up and running around…next summer.
So, instead of predicting, we’re reacting. Or maybe responding. I don’t know, guys. My life coach keeps going on about shifting to intentional responses instead of knee-jerk reactions, but all I want to do when I see the full list of groups is jerk my knees, point my fingers, and just generally start babbling without end. So that’s what I’ll do this time. I can feel the conspiracy theories coming, so let’s break this draw down before I have a breakdown.
Play-Off Qualifiers
As I alluded to, six spots (that pesky 12.5%) are only semi-spoken for thus far, with 22 teams from around the world still hoping to book a spot at the biggest dance this side of the sun. We simply have to start here, because no matter how these end up going, they’ll change the face of the tournament-proper. Let’s start with the FIFA Play-Off paths, the more exciting ones obviously. For reference, I’ve included FIFA rankings in parentheses next to each nation throughout this article: You’re welcome.
In Path A, we’ve got Bolivia (76) taking on Suriname (123) for a chance to play Iraq (58). The winner of that final matchup will advance to join a stacked Group I, but we’ll talk about that later. In Path B, New Caledonia (149) hope to become the second OFC nation to qualify, but they’ll have to beat the likes of Jamaica (70) and then the Democratic Republic of Congo (56) to do so. The winner is rewarded with a nice cushy spot in Group K.
Before we move on, let’s revisit a few fun numbers. The lowest-ranked nation to ever qualify for a World Cup was North Korea in 2010, when they made it to the tournament as the 105th-ranked team in the world. This year, Suriname and New Caledonia both have a chance to break that record, and while the expanded format may take some of the shine away from the accomplishment, it’s still pretty dang cool.
Now, the UEFA Play-Offs. We’ve got four mini-tournaments to determine four more European spots, bringing the most spoiled continent up to a total of 16 teams in next year’s competition. The likes of Denmark (21) and Italy (12) stand to be some of this tournament’s biggest absences if they fail to run their respective gauntlets, and with their paths funneling into Groups A and B respectively, they’ll have a big impact on hosts Mexico and Canada’s group stage experience. Personally, I’m hoping to see Ireland continue their miraculous run through Path D; in Troy Parrot we trust!
It’s likely that Turkïye (25) advances from Path C, but Romania (47), Slovakia (45), or little Kosovo (80) could pull off the unlikely upset to join the USA in Group D. Finally, Path B leads to Group F, where Ukraine (28), Sweden (43), Poland (31), and Albania (63) form what feels like the most even of the UEFA Play-Off paths.
Once these play-offs are sorted in March of 2026, we’ll finally hit a 100% full field, and I’ll be much closer to having my predicting powers up to speed. While we wait for the stragglers, though, let’s take a gander at some of the things we know for sure.
Group of Death Contenders
For those unfamiliar with the term, let me clear it up for you; in every tournament, the term “Group of Death” refers to any group that has an unusually high number of talented teams in it, making it one of, if not the hardest, groups to advance from. In theory, at least. It’s no exact science, more of a vibe thing, you know?
With more teams spread across more groups this year, the chances of ending up in a Group of Death were always going to be lower than ever before. Gone are the days where two superpowers wind up in the same group … or so we thought! I’ve picked out four groups that I think may be able to live up to the name, with one clear standout that’s almost certainly going to give us some must-watch soccer.
First, the honorable mentions. Group C consists of Brazil (5), Morocco (11), Haiti (84), and Scotland (36). Carlo Ancelotti’s Seleção Canarinho haven’t been at their historical heights in recent times, but Brazil is a talent factory that rarely disappoints. They’ll be hoping to top a group with rising powerhouse Morocco and a scrappy Scotland side, making it a three-horse race at the very least. Haiti might snag a surprise or two, but, while I’ll be rooting for them, I don’t think Les Grenadiers will be making too much noise.
Groups F and L both have all the right vibes for a Group of Death: a couple highly-ranked UEFA teams, stubborn CAF sides, and some intriguing wild cards to round things out. Japan (18) is almost certainly ranked too low in the FIFA rankings, and will give the Netherlands a run for their money when the ball hits the grass in Group F. Over in Group L, the pairing of England (4) and Croatia (10) makes it the only group with multiple top-ten ranked nations, and while Ghana (72) and Panama (30) aren’t as historically successful, they’ve both earned reputations as tough teams to play against.
Despite the allure of the three aforementioned groups, it’s Group I that will almost certainly be the true Group of Death. France (3), Senegal (19), Norway (29), and the winner of FIFA Play-Off Path 2. We’ve got the behemoth that is France, one of the best African teams in recent memory, the barely-human goal-scoring of Erling Haaland, and a plucky underdog that has nothing to lose. Think of the storylines, people! What if Suriname draws against France, beats Senegal, and loses to Norway to advance? No matter how Group I shakes out, it’s going to produce absolute scenes.
International Loons
This is mnufc.com; we can’t talk about the World Cup draw without taking some time to highlight where our guys have ended up! Obviously, plenty can change between now and the final roster decisions for every nation. But, I’m not predicting, I’m assuming, so let’s allow ourselves to explore a few Loon groups to see how things shook out for the Black and Blue World Cup hopefuls.
I already mentioned Carlos Harvey’s Panama in Group L. Suffice it to say, it’s going to be tough to advance, but with eight third-place teams going through to the knockouts this time, I’m feeling Costa Rica 2014 vibes for Los Canaleros. Michael Boxall and the Kiwis landed in Group G, taking on Belgium (8), Egypt (34), and Iran (20) in one of the more intriguing mixes in the draw. Despite being the lowest-ranked team to automatically qualify for the tournament, New Zealand should be pleased with the group they got. Third isn’t out of the question.
The club is still negotiating with goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair, but no matter what, we’ll be watching his Canadian side in Group B against Qatar (51), Switzerland (17), and the winner of UEFA Play-Off Path A. That’s a winnable group if I ever saw one.
That’s All. For Now.
That’s it. That’s all you’re getting. I’ve never found much point in predicting or reacting to anything beyond the groups until after the games have been played. I mean, I’m already drawing conclusions before the play-off games have even happened; there’s no way I’m going through all the possibilities of who finishes first, second, or third in their group and what that could mean for Lebron’s legacy.
No. That’s where we’ll end the pontificating for now. You’ll just have to wait until we get closer to kickoff to hear more about my predictions for each group, rantings about expectations for the USA, and my essay on why Japan is going to win the entire thing. We’ll see you in the new year, fellow soccer lovers.
