In this week’s preview — and every opportunity that I’ve had in the last few weeks — I mentioned that your Loons are in the Supporters’ Shield hunt. Now, I know it’s bold to keep hammering that home before the final point-tallies are calculated, but consider this; every time I strike a hammer on a nail, that’s kind of like knocking on wood, right? Whether you agree or not, I’m going to consider myself justified, and we’re going to explore some Supporters’ Shield history. Because maybe — hammer that nail — your Loons could be lifting it when it’s all said and done.
What the Heck is This?
First, let’s all get on the same page. In leagues around the world, the top point-earners after the conclusion of the regular season are crowned the champions. No playoffs, no championship game, just sustained dominance across an entire season. I love that idea, and, in theory, I think it’s the best way to determine a champion. But, MLS isn’t like many of the leagues that use this system.
With 30 teams spread across one of the world’s largest countries by both area and population, MLS is nearly twice the size of some leagues, and at least 1.5 times the size of the likes of the English Premier League, the German Bundesliga, and the Italian Serie A. Why does that matter? Because, in each of those smaller leagues, the schedule is made up of home and away matchups with every single team in the league. They play everyone twice, making the regular season a decent representation of who the top dog really is.
In MLS, two conferences of 15 allow teams to play several opponents multiple times, while leaving room for six cross-conference matchups per team each season. Long story short, our league structure isn’t conducive to the traditional championship method used in leagues around the world, so why use it? Plus, this is America; we love a good playoff run, don’t we?
Still, it’s well-worth rewarding the best team from the regular season. The Supporters’ Shield is genuinely one of my favorite trophies in the sport: a nod to tradition around the world, and a bridge to connect it to our own.
By the Numbers
Our league has changed quite a bit across its 29 completed seasons, with fluctuation in both number of games played and the number of teams competing. What began as a 10-team project that played 32 games a season has ballooned into a 30-team league playing 34 games a year, making a historical analysis of Supporters’ Shield results a little difficult to wrap your head around. But that’s never stopped me from trying, so let’s do it anyway.
We’ll start with some averages. On average, just over 60 points has proven to be enough to win the regular season title. A rate of 1.90 points per game seems to be the standard to hit, which is probably a more realistic number to base average pacing on than overall points. Both metrics include the COVID year and the shorter 2001 and 2002 seasons, skewing the accumulated points tally while preserving our ppg metrics.
Before we get the Black and Blue portion of this section, let’s explore some of the extremes. The lowest points per game rate to ever claim the Shield is actually a tie — between two seasons from the same club. The Columbus Crew’s Shield winning campaigns in 2004 and 2009 both saw the Ohio team grab 1.63 ppg. On the other end of the spectrum, Inter Miami’s 2024 triumph set a new league standard in every metric. Their 74 points were the most earned by any team in the regular season, and their 2.18 ppg put them ahead of the 2021 New England Revolution, who managed to set the previous record without any help from World Cup winners.
At the moment, your Loons have 47 points from 27 games. That puts them at 1.74 points per game, and on track to reach about 59 points by the end of 2025. With the likes of Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and San Diego a few points ahead, and Vancouver, Orlando, and Nashville sitting all but even, it’s going to be an extremely tight race to the finish line that will likely see several teams hit numbers that would have easily won a Supporters’ Shield in years gone by.
If the Loons want to lift the Shield, it’s likely going to require an uptick in form. They’ll only play one of their rivals (San Diego) during their final seven games of 2025, meaning that they’ll also need to rely on a few outside results going their way. If I had to guess, I’d say that anything less than 14 points from the final seven games won’t be enough. That’s a tall order, but it’s doable.
There’s more to the Supporters’ Shield than just bragging rights. It comes with a rich layer of tradition, and more importantly, a guaranteed spot in the following season’s Concacaf Champions Cup. It’s an accomplishment that can help thrust clubs into the next tier of global pedigree, and it’s within touching distance for Eric Ramsay and the boys. It’s not going to be easy to lift it, but if they can manage it, it’ll be quite the moment for our club.
